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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd